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Here's an interesting study in sample size.  Here is an image of my profit since I started my goal to make $1000 in online poker. As you can see the variance is striking. The end result is that I had a 13.5% ROI over the period and I am over 15% of the way towards my goal. Still, the graph *looks* ugly. Not only are the swings enormous, there doesn't seem to be any positive trend.

This is a chart of all my poker winnings since I started tracking. Much prettier, eh? This chart clearly does exhibit an upward trend, and the period charted by the first graph seems nothing more than an unpleasant break-even stretch. In actuality I have now made more money in poker than at any time since I started tracking. Interestingly enough, my ROI over this period is 12.3% which is less than the goal period charted above. For those of you interested, I am calculating ROI by average profit/average buy-in (including rake). After I earn another hundred dollars I'll have enough of a roll to move up in buy-ins again. If I can maintain a decent ROI (I'm hoping for about 8%), this graph should have a very healthy spike in the near future. My other goals are moving along nicely. On Thursday I went to a passover Seder. Had a great time. Not counting it as a religious service because there wasn't a formal religious leader guiding it. I really do like passover Seders though. Probably the best religious meal I've had the chance to partake in. On Friday I saw the neo-futurists again. I have to say I wasn't that impressed this time. We got there somewhat late and had to take seats in the back, so the intimacy was missing. Also, some of the players were clearly new to the troupe and we flubbing lines. I'll still see them next time but I'm hoping they get it together. The funniest performance was called "the grapes of wrath" and consisted of one of the players with a bunch of grapes just throwing them at the audience. Silly, but I enjoyed it. There was also a waiting for godot satire I found amusing. Saturday I went to a dinner party that I made an ice-cream banana fudge pie for. I'm not sure if it counts as an original recipe since the crust and the ice cream were ready-made. If anyone actually reads this and wants the recipe I'll post it and include it in the goal list. I went to an Easter mass on Sunday. A formal church service is a very surreal experience for me. On the one hand I'm a big fan of symbolism (Easter is especially loaded with pagan symbols of fertility) but the formalism irks me. It's like I'm a big fan of the themes they are trying to empart, but whoever wrote the script needs a good editor because it really doesn't come off right. For example, I like the notion of greeting and expressing harmony with your neighbor. I'm all for forming genuine communal bonds but that part of the mass is just awkward for me. Relationships and community need to grow. Any attempt to just say "hey there brother!" and assume we're the best of chums makes me feel uncomfortable. I do try to put my best foot forward, but I never come away saying "Man, that guy I shook hands with was awesome. I wonder if he plays Madden?" The sermon was vaguely interesting. The gist was that when mary came to Jesus' tomb and found it empty the angel that greeted her implored her to not hang around in the empty tomb but seek jesus who had risen. The priest said Easter isn't a time to sit back and say "man it's awesome being saved" but to seek out and challenge your religion. I liked that sentiment. Sort of a carpe diem of religious sentiment. Last night I went to A Salt and Battery and had Fish and Chips. The food was pretty good, but overpriced. Probably the best part was talking about how they had fried mars bars and how unappetizing they seemed. A British guy who was there said that there was a translation error there and that a British mars bar was much closer to an American 3 musketeers bar. I exclaimed that this changed everything and he nodded sagely, but after he left I realized I like both candy bars about the same (i.e. not at all) and that a deep fried 3 musketeers sounded just as disgusting as the fried mars bar. After that my companions and I jumped into a cab to make it to a movie theater to see Sugar (review to come). The cab driver was named Malik and was from Pakistan. Really a funny guy. At one point he asked me to navigate the cab and since I never drive I had no idea how to go. Eventually I said he should go down a street that was actually a one way in the other direction. When I gave up he laughed in a "haha now we know who the cab driver is!" sort of way. Dan said it was an awesome Columbo interaction, which is true except that I admitted I had no idea where I was going to start with. It would be like a guy meeting up with Columbo and saying "Lieutenant, I killed the guy...arrest me" and Columbo responding ""Oh no no sir, I'm certain of your innocence. I was just wondering whether you could help me clear up one thing ..." Still it was a fun cab ride. You gotta love new york. Tonight I'm seeing a live concert of Flight of the Conchords. reports to come! |